The Tinubu Stakeholders Forum (TSF) has described Nigeria’s victory in the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) arbitration over the Mambilla Hydropower Project as a major boost to the country’s fiscal position, electricity sector and broader economic prospects.
The ICC tribunal rejected claims brought by Sunrise Power against Nigeria, including a $2.35 billion claim arising from the protracted dispute over the hydropower project. It also rejected a separate $400 million claim linked to a proposed settlement, with the related proceedings addressing potential financial exposure exceeding $3.38 billion.
In a statement jointly signed by its Chairman, Ahmad Sajoh, and Secretary, Danjuma Sada, the forum said the ruling could help protect Nigeria’s public finances, recover legal costs and remove a longstanding legal obstacle to the development of one of the country’s most ambitious energy infrastructure projects.
According to TSF, the decision extended beyond the legal victory, given the potential financial implications for the Federal Government and the economic benefits that could arise from the eventual development of the Mambilla Hydropower Project.
The forum noted that the project represents one of Nigeria’s major untapped energy and infrastructure opportunities, adding that the prolonged legal dispute had constituted an additional obstacle to a project capable of significantly increasing the country’s electricity generation capacity.
TSF said the ruling comes at a critical time as the administration of President Bola Tinubu pursues measures to address longstanding structural and financial challenges in the power sector.
It pointed to the Federal Government’s ongoing plan to settle ₦3.3 trillion in verified legacy electricity-sector obligations, arguing that avoiding a potentially substantial arbitration liability could provide additional fiscal room for the government to address inherited commitments and pursue sector reforms.
The forum further observed that the $3.38 billion in potential exposure addressed in the related proceedings was greater than the government’s ₦3.3 trillion legacy power-sector settlement programme, although the two figures are denominated in different currencies.
It said avoiding the liability would reduce the risk of a significant financial drain on public resources and allow the government to concentrate on resolving existing obligations and strengthening the electricity sector.
On the wider economic implications, TSF said the successful implementation of the Mambilla project could support manufacturing, mining, agriculture, technology and other productive sectors through increased electricity supply.
It added that improved power generation could create opportunities for new businesses, stimulate investment and generate employment, while strengthening the country’s capacity to support industrial and commercial activities.
The forum also said the outcome of the arbitration could send a positive signal to international investors about Nigeria’s willingness to defend its economic interests through established international dispute-resolution mechanisms while upholding contractual and legal obligations.
TSF, however, urged the Federal Government to build on the arbitration outcome by accelerating the next phase of the Mambilla project, stressing the need for transparency, commercial discipline and strong contractual safeguards to ensure that the anticipated economic benefits are realised.
The forum maintained that translating the legal victory into tangible benefits would depend on sustained implementation of the project and effective management of the country’s wider power-sector reforms.
