The Tinubu Stakeholders Forum (TSF) has described Nigeria’s victory in the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) arbitration over the long-running Mambilla Hydropower Project dispute as a major development with significant implications for the country’s finances, electricity sector and wider economic prospects.
The ICC tribunal rejected claims brought by Sunrise Power against the Federal Government, including a $2.35 billion claim arising from the dispute over the Mambilla project.
The tribunal also dismissed a separate $400 million claim linked to a proposed settlement, with the related proceedings addressing potential claims amounting to more than $3.38 billion.
In a statement signed by its Chairman, Ahmad Sajoh, and Secretary, Danjuma Sada, TSF said the significance of the ruling extended beyond the courtroom, particularly because of the financial liability Nigeria had avoided.
The Forum said the decision would potentially free the Federal Government from a substantial financial burden, facilitate the recovery of legal costs and remove a long-standing legal obstacle surrounding one of Nigeria’s most ambitious power projects.
According to TSF, the Mambilla Hydropower Project has remained one of the country’s major untapped infrastructure and energy opportunities, with its prolonged legal dispute constituting an additional obstacle to its development.
The group said the ruling came at a critical period in the administration’s efforts to address structural and financial challenges confronting the electricity sector.
TSF also noted that the Federal Government was implementing a structured plan to settle ₦3.3 trillion in verified legacy power-sector obligations, stressing that the arbitration outcome had further reduced the potential financial pressures associated with the sector.
The Forum said the defeated Sunrise claim of $3.38 billion was larger than the $2.3 billion legacy power-sector settlement programme, arguing that avoiding such liability could provide additional fiscal space for the government to tackle inherited obligations and pursue power-sector reforms.
Beyond the financial implications, TSF said successful implementation of the Mambilla project could have wider economic consequences by expanding electricity supply and supporting productive sectors such as manufacturing, mining, agriculture and technology.
It added that improved power availability could stimulate new businesses, employment opportunities and investment across the economy.
The Forum further said the successful resolution of the arbitration sent a signal to international investors that Nigeria was prepared to defend its economic interests through established international dispute-resolution mechanisms while maintaining contractual and legal discipline.
TSF urged the Federal Government to build on the arbitration victory by accelerating the next phase of the Mambilla project, while ensuring transparency, commercial discipline and robust contractual safeguards throughout its implementation.
