The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has projected that Nigeria’s economy will expand by at least 5.5% in 2026, driven by new tax laws, macroeconomic stability, and growing private sector investments.
In a policy statement signed by its Chairman, Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI described 2026 as a potential “boom year” for the country, attributing the optimism to the federal government’s steadfast implementation of economic reforms since 2023.
“For us, understanding the background to the current developments and the philosophical underpinning of the economy, we submit that the year 2026 would be Nigeria’s boom year yet,” the think tank said.
IMPI highlighted the impact of the newly-enacted tax reforms, effective January 1, 2026, which are expected to strengthen government revenue through tighter compliance, expanded digital revenue systems, and improved remittance discipline across revenue agencies. The reforms also introduce Economic Development Tax Incentives for priority sectors such as manufacturing. Eligible companies can obtain certificates granting a five percent annual tax credit on qualifying capital expenditure for up to five years, while firms that reinvest profits may access longer incentives, and certain manufacturing-related transactions are exempt from stamp duties.
“Tax reforms will redefine how manufacturers operate, invest, and plan for growth, signaling a clear shift towards a coordinated and incentive-driven fiscal environment,” IMPI added.
The think tank also cited growing private sector investment as a major indicator of economic growth. In the past year, Nigerian companies across oil, gas, telecoms, banking, industrial goods, and agriculture have been actively acquiring property, plant, and equipment to expand operations and strengthen market positions. These investments are aimed at building capacity, meeting consumer demand, and reducing reliance on imports, directly boosting production.
Nigeria has also made significant strides in foreign exchange accessibility, rising 15 places to fourth in Africa according to the Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2025. Foreign Direct Investment inflows rose to $720 million in the third quarter of 2025, while portfolio investments reached $2.51 billion, reflecting strong participation from non-residents in domestic debt and equity markets.
“Macroeconomic stability is the cornerstone of private sector growth, investment, and productivity. Stability exists when domestic demand, output, fiscal revenues, expenditure, and savings are balanced,” IMPI said.
With tax reforms, increased investments, improved access to foreign exchange, and macroeconomic stability in place, the think tank concluded that Nigeria is well-positioned for a strong economic performance in 2026.
