The Tinubu Media Support Group (TMSG) has described the World Bank’s revised 4.4 per cent economic growth projection for Nigeria as more realistic than its previous forecasts, noting that earlier projections underestimated the capacity of the Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration to drive economic recovery and growth.
In a statement jointly signed by its Chairman, Emeka Nwankpa, and Secretary, Dapo Okubanjo, the group said the World Bank’s upward review of Nigeria’s growth outlook for 2026 and 2027 amounts to a subtle but significant vote of confidence in the ongoing economic reforms of the Tinubu-led government.
According to TMSG, the new projection followed the stronger-than-expected performance of the Nigerian economy in 2025, when growth reached 4.2 per cent, surpassing the World Bank’s earlier estimate of 3.7 per cent.
“After seeing the Nigerian economy grow by 4.2 per cent in 2025, well above its projection, it was gratifying that the World Bank opted against underestimating the President Bola Tinubu administration in its latest forecast,” the group said.
It noted that the World Bank upgraded its earlier growth estimates of 3.7 per cent and 3.8 per cent for 2026 and 2027 respectively to 4.4 per cent for both years, just six months after issuing the initial projections.
TMSG recalled that similar scepticism trailed earlier forecasts by international financial institutions. It cited projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, which had put Nigeria’s 2025 growth at 3 per cent and 3.6 per cent respectively, largely on the assumption of a global oil market slowdown.
The group pointed out that the Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) had at the time faulted those projections, arguing that Nigeria would outperform them because its economy was no longer predominantly dependent on crude oil revenues.
“And that was exactly what happened,” TMSG said, adding that it was reassuring to see the World Bank now align with that position by raising its projections for 2026 and 2027 by 0.6 and 0.7 percentage points respectively.
According to the group, this is the first time in two years that the World Bank has projected a growth rate of over 4 per cent for Nigeria without hinging its optimism on oil sector performance.
It quoted the Bank as attributing the projected growth to the “continued expansion in services and a rebound in agricultural output, with a modest acceleration in non-oil industry.”
TMSG further noted that the World Bank credited Nigeria’s 4.2 per cent growth in 2025 to ongoing economic reforms, including new tax laws and a sustained prudent monetary policy stance, which it said would further strengthen the economy in 2026 and 2027.
“This, for us, is a major endorsement of the efficacy of President Tinubu’s economic policies, especially as the World Bank is convinced that Nigeria could record its fastest growth in a decade,” the statement said.
The group expressed confidence that the Tinubu administration could once again outperform the World Bank’s projections, as it had done in the previous two years.
TMSG urged Nigerians to remain patient and continue to trust in President Bola Tinubu’s capacity to grow the economy in a manner that delivers long-term benefits to all citizens.
