On the day PMB approved the APC emergency NEC meeting that dethroned Oshiomhole, I wrote that Asiwaju was the major victim and advised that he reconsiders any presidential gambit in 2023 to avoid greater disappointment. Many disagreed and postulated that he was beyond the effects of any such gang up.
When Gov Obaseki defected to the PDP and won the party’s gubernatorial ticket, I predicted that the huge crack within the APC apparatchik (cabals) will help his re-election as the use of federal might against him would not be possible on that account.
Bottom line, in my opinion, was that Tinubu had become a common enemy of a strong and influential group within his own party that must be checkmated, if power must remain in the north come 2023; as they have projected.
Now Edo 2020 has happened and it does seem that federal might is not a factor and people’s votes would count to the end. This much PMB himself ordered at the eve of the election.
Let me sound it out again: Tinubu got to the dropping tip of his power plateau during the APC national leadership crisis and started tipping down the day Oshiomhole was removed. The Edo election model, which would still repeat in Ondo, is the public unfolding of the many plots against him. Or why do you think that INEC is suddenly able to upload elections directly from polling units?
What do I mean? Ondo election will be won and lost by the people and their vigilance; and many more scenes of the Jagabqn unfurling would still manifest.
He has two options, in my opinion, none of which is easy:
1. Abandon any presidential ambition in 2023 and continue to play lackey to the determinant forces of the Buhari presidency; or
2. Forge an alliance with the Southeast and Southsouth regions to checkmate the plots of the Cabal against his ambition. Given his “all eggs in the Buhari basket” display so far, this would be extremely difficult for him to do. In doing so, he must be prepared to forego the presidential ticket for someone else, preferably from the Southeast. However, it is the option that offers the greatest opportunity for his ultimate redemption and legacy.
I can predict that if Asiwaju adopts option 2 above, not only will power shift to the south in 2023; and the talk about restructuring Nigeria will happen before the 2027 general election.
That way his place in history will be permanently etched in gold. But of course, there will be multiple challenges: disobedience will suddenly emerge in Lagos, economic disruption to his empire and sudden probes and inquests into his past and affairs.
If he chooses option 1, he will be left alone to live in peace to enjoy his stupendous wealth, but personally unhappy and unfulfilled.
Again, this is my opinion and I welcome all the pundits that would even seek or even seek to rubbish it; that is the beauty of democracy. By or even before 2023 we shall again compare notes, by His special grace.
Rep. Linus Okorie,fca.