The Tinubu Stakeholders Forum (TSF) has said Nigeria is gradually reducing its dependence on crude oil earnings, government borrowing and Central Bank interventions to meet its foreign exchange needs, following a significant rise in autonomous FX inflows.
The Forum said autonomous foreign exchange inflows rose to $70.54 billion in 2025, representing a 25.12 per cent increase from the $56.38 billion recorded in 2024.
In a statement signed by its Chairman, Ahmad Sajoh, and Secretary, Danjuma Sada, TSF said autonomous inflows accounted for 64.21 per cent of the total $109.86 billion foreign exchange inflows recorded in 2025.
According to the Forum, the growth was driven largely by non-oil export receipts, capital importation and over-the-counter market transactions, reflecting the increasing contribution of exporters, investors and private businesses to Nigeria’s foreign exchange supply.
TSF said the development was evidence that the foreign exchange reforms of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, implemented by the Central Bank of Nigeria under Governor Olayemi Cardoso, were beginning to yield results.
It identified key reforms as the consolidation of the foreign exchange market, adoption of the willing-buyer, willing-seller framework, clearance of the verified $7 billion FX backlog, introduction of the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System and launch of the Nigerian FX Code.
The Forum said tighter supervision of Bureau de Change operations and stronger enforcement of the repatriation of oil and non-oil export proceeds had also contributed to improved liquidity and encouraged exporters and investors to channel foreign exchange through the formal market.
It further disclosed that aggregate FX inflows increased by 13.81 per cent to $109.86 billion in 2025, while inflows through the Central Bank declined by 2.08 per cent to $39.32 billion, mainly due to lower receipts from government debt and FX swaps.
TSF described the shift as significant, saying it indicated that Nigeria’s foreign exchange position was increasingly being supported by exports, investment and productive private-sector activity rather than external borrowing and temporary financial arrangements.
“The increase in autonomous inflows is a strong indication that Nigeria is beginning to earn more foreign exchange from non-oil exports, investment and private enterprise.
“This is the more sustainable pathway to economic stability because it broadens Nigeria’s sources of foreign exchange and reduces excessive dependence on volatile crude oil earnings, government borrowing and repeated Central Bank interventions,” the Forum said.
TSF said stronger autonomous inflows could improve FX liquidity for manufacturers and importers, enhance access to foreign exchange for machinery and raw materials, encourage non-oil exporters and reduce pressure on the naira.
It added that sustained growth in export earnings and capital inflows would strengthen Nigeria’s external reserves, boost investor confidence and reinforce macroeconomic stability.
The Forum, however, noted that aggregate FX outflows also increased to $49.05 billion in 2025, partly reflecting higher transactions through autonomous channels and increased foreign currency obligations by businesses and investors.
It therefore urged the Federal Government to deepen incentives for exporters, remove trade and logistics bottlenecks, strengthen local value addition and ensure the full repatriation of export proceeds through the formal market.
TSF maintained that the growing contribution of autonomous foreign exchange sources showed that Nigeria was gradually moving from a fragmented and intervention-dependent FX system towards a more transparent, credible and market-driven framework capable of attracting investment, supporting exports and strengthening the country’s external position.
