Official Projections of the 2023 Nigeria Presidential Election
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Nigeria is the most populous nation on the African continent with an estimated population of over 213 million people. Nigeria doubles as the largest black nation globally and her territory hosts some of the most ancient evidence of human civilization. Not having a political history without turbulence, the world looks on to Nigeria as she attempts to advance into the 7th electoral cycle since the commencement of her fourth republic in 1999
Governance Index has conducted a series of voter demographic analysis, historical election result analysis, opinion polls as well as current political sentiment analysis between May 2022 and February 2023 to gauge the mood of the Nigerian electorate and determine the voting directions across the various states and geopolitical zones. These surveys captured people in rural, semi-urban and urban dwellings across the country.
While voter behaviour was not seen to have changed significantly, the most notable observations will be a shift in the direction of voting across the various voting segments, the impact of technology and decisions of the mainstream political parties during primary elections. This is indicative of an unexpected outcome in the final results of the 2023 general elections.
The biggest potential gainers will be the new entrants; a bloc of electorates who are determined to challenge the mainstream political actors.
Can they withstand the last minute political upheavals and make this happen?
